Research systems / 01

Read the footnote.
Test the intuition.

An academic research note on whether company-specific fundamental knowledge retains value when machine-generated breadth enters the experiment.

The operatingREALITYcontext before conclusion
01Companypolicy & practice
02Industrystructure & cycle
03Footnotethe hidden variable

Every business leaves a different trail.

The useful signal is rarely found in a single headline metric. It lives in the choices a company makes, the language it repeats and the small disclosures that explain how an industry actually works. This project treats that specificity as a research variable.

ncompany contexts
mindustry contexts
document relationships

Can experience still
carry explanatory power?

Two artifacts, one controlled comparison: does domain-specific fundamental research retain an advantage when the same question is approached with a general-purpose machine system?

A / Human baseline
A

random pork oinks

Built without AI: supply-chain and holding-structure graph research, then trained into networks built for this one problem.

Material
SEC filings, earnings calls, published analyst forecasts, with corporate bond markets alongside
Method
Hand-made company and industry graphs, then task-specific networks trained from scratch on 200,000+ extracted, labelled examples
Purpose
Apply accumulated fundamental-research experience
B / Control group
B

pork with memories

An ensemble of Qwen models adapted with supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and LoRA on twenty-five years of publicly sourced research material.

Corpus
Earnings-call transcripts, SEC filings, and company and industry reports
Method
Model-generated outputs rather than manually constructed rules
Purpose
Test whether fine-tuned models can outperform accumulated fundamental-research knowledge
Central empirical testDo fundamental research and an understanding of the economy and industry still matter — or can they be replaced entirely by AI built by outsiders?

A · random pork oinks · without AI

From document to
decision context.

Research is assembled as a chain of evidence, not a pile of excerpts.

Reading cadence / one fiscal yearThe same company, re-read six ways.

Track B counts documents. The question here is what each class is read for, and when it arrives — the rhythm the filing calendar sets for anyone working through a company by hand.

Reading cadence / one fiscal year
Periodic financial recordEvent-drivenVoice and structure
01

Collect

Gather the company’s own vocabulary across filings, notes and reporting periods.

02

Situate

Place each disclosure inside the operating structure of its industry.

03

Interpret

Turn connected observations into a view that can be inspected and challenged.

Current layer / collectStart with the source’s own terms.

Recurring definitions, accounting policies and changes in presentation become the first map of what deserves attention.

Relational research map / working exampleHuman-written knowledge becomes structure.

Filter the hand-made graph by relationship type, then select a company to see the relationships it is party to and the filing each one was read from.

8 nodes / 11 human-written relationships

Context is a connected object.

Choose a company below, then follow one finding from the filed sentence to its industry implication. All three are quoted verbatim from the filings named.

Choose a company example
Source document
Form 10-K · change in accounting estimate

“In January 2023, we completed an assessment of the useful lives of our servers and network equipment and adjusted the estimated useful life of our servers from four years to six years.”

FY 2023 / Alphabet Inc.
Cross-reference

Effect disclosed / $3.9bn less depreciation, $3.0bn more net income

Research interpretation
Company-specific

An estimate is a lever on reported profit.

The same fleet, the same cash, and $3.0 billion more net income — $0.24 a share — because a service life was reassessed. The filing quantifies it, which means the earnings line cannot be read without the policy behind it.

Industry context

Useful life is a competitive disclosure.

When hyperscalers extend server lives within a few years of one another, the question stops being accounting and becomes whether the hardware genuinely lasts longer — answerable only by reading the same note across the peer group.

A · random pork oinks · without AI

The research is
the training set.

Track A does not stop at the reading. What the framework produces becomes labelled data, and that data trains networks built for this one problem — no language model, no pretrained weights, and not one word of an example written rather than filed.

Design schematic / not a performance result
Stage 01

Four public records, and what only each one answers

Filings and calls are what the company states about itself. Published analyst forecasts are what informed outsiders expect of it, on earnings and on the line items underneath. Corporate bond markets are what capital charges the same company to stay funded, moving continuously in a way no filing calendar does. They overlap less than the list suggests: four of the seven questions below have exactly one source that can answer them at all.

Input
Four public records / 7 questions, 4 of them with a single source
Stated by the companyForecast by analystsPriced by markets
Stage 02

An analogue, built by deterministic extraction

Not synthetic text. Each example begins at a real earnings event, matched to the point-in-time 8-K Item 2.02 or 6-K that carried it, then sanitized and identity-masked. Every sentence is ranked for guidance, financial metrics, comparisons and numeric evidence; ten are kept, held in source order and capped at thirty-two words each. Nothing is paraphrased and no language model is involved — nothing reaches an example that was not filed.

Where the work sits
One release / ten sentences kept from fifty-four, in source order
Stage 03

Two labels, both reconstructed point-in-time

An extract on its own teaches nothing. Each is paired with a reconstructed earnings surprise — reported against the consensus as it stood before the release, not as later restated — and with the next-day abnormal return, the move left once the market’s own move is taken out.

Labels
Four steps / consensus frozen, release filed, surprise, abnormal return
Stage 04

Over two hundred thousand examples, on the reporting calendar

One event, extracted and labelled, is a row; more than 200,000 of them make the corpus the networks are trained on. They do not arrive evenly. Filers cluster into four reporting seasons a few weeks after each quarter end and thin to a trickle between them, and a corpus built from real events inherits that shape rather than smoothing it away. Every mark is one example.

Corpus
Corpus / 200,000 examples across the reporting year, one mark each
Stage 05

The pipeline is searched for, not assumed

Which architecture, how much history each example sees, how hard to regularise — none of it is obvious in advance for a problem this small and this noisy. Each faint path is one configuration evaluated; the marked path is the one that survived.

Output
Six search dimensions / one configuration carried forward
Compute
~600 GPU hours

Building the corpus out of raw earnings releases, and training the networks on it. Run on rented neocloud capacity rather than on one machine, and none of it spent on a general-purpose model.

End of Track AContinue to Track B — the fine-tuned model ensemble

B · pork with memories · fine-tuned model condition

How the model ensemble is
trained, then assembled.

Three stages: the corpus the models read, the supervised fine-tuning that adapts them, and the synthesis that brings their outputs into one comparison. The middle stage is where the work sits.

Design schematic / not a performance result
Stage 01

The corpus the models read

Twenty-five years of publicly sourced material across three document types.

Input
Research horizon / year 25 of 25
Stage 02

Supervised fine-tuning with low-rank adapters

Curated pairs are passed through a frozen base model. Only the low-rank adapters are trained, and the pass is repeated once per ensemble member — this stage, not the merge, is the cost of Track B.

Where the work sits
Training pass / adapter 1 of 5
Base weights held frozen · d × dTrained low-rank adapters · r ≪ d
Stage 03

Ensemble synthesis

The fine-tuned members’ outputs are combined into the single response that enters the comparison.

Output
Fine-tuned runsSynthesisControl

The comparison stays open.

Both tracks read the same filings and answer the same question. Nothing on this page is a result — each method is set out so it can be inspected before either artifact is scored.